Impressive-Musicmaking
Skill vs luck
Impressive-Musicmaking on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 30%–95%) · profit +$2.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +1.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 29, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Impressive-Musicmaking: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 29, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xe949065b6c64308369c26dc590121623a5a4dea6. Data CC BY 4.0.
Impressive-Musicmaking: +$2.8K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 30%–95%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 15 – Oct 29
- +$2.8K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | BUY No @ 97¢ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 27 | BUY No @ 94¢ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 25 | BUY No @ 29¢ | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 25 | SELL Yes @ 70¢ | Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 24 | BUY No @ 31¢ | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 23 | BUY No @ 34¢ | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 22 | BUY No @ 75¢ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 22 | BUY No @ 92¢ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House ↗ | $1.9K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.