Probable-Hypothesis
0xa3543673b381e00303b5c15d6cd0d9455d1a22eb
Probable-Hypothesis: +$4.2K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 80% (95% range 38%–96%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
+$4.2K
return +36.6%
Settled bets
5
$12K staked
Won
80.0%
95% range 38%–96%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$2.1K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$2.1K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Buccaneers
@ 78¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys |
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys | $2.3K |
| Sep 19 | BUY No
@ 62¢
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-09-19? |
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-09-19? | $1.0K |
| Sep 19 | SELL No
@ 26¢
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-09-19? |
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-09-19? | $1.0K |
| Sep 19 | BUY No
@ 52¢
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-09-19? |
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-09-19? | $2.0K |
| Sep 13 | SELL No
@ 27¢
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-13? |
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-13? | $1.1K |
| Sep 13 | BUY No
@ 69¢
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-13? |
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-13? | $3.0K |
| Aug 30 | BUY Yes
@ 84¢
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-08-30? |
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-08-30? | $3.0K |
| Aug 22 | BUY No
@ 62¢
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-08-22? |
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-08-22? | $2.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.