Grand-Reasoning
0x54b56146656e7eef9da02b3a030c18e06e924b31
Grand-Reasoning: −$4.5K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 22%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$4.5K
return −27.1%
Settled bets
8
$17K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 22%–79%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$3.9K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$9.8K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$1.4K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | BUY Yes
@ 23¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | $1.2K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Valesca Machado
@ 66¢
UFC Fight Night: Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) |
UFC Fight Night: Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) | $2.7K |
| Sep 26 | SELL No
@ 83¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | $8.3K |
| Sep 21 | BUY Yes
@ 18¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | $3.6K |
| Sep 19 | SELL Yes
@ 75¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | $7.6K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Yes
@ 72¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | $1.4K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Yes
@ 14¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | $1.0K |
| Sep 14 | BUY Yes
@ 28¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? |
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.