Elementary-Cesspool
0xfbe66593e49c4e7a7180a2582f041158bfb800f8
Elementary-Cesspool: +$55K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 83% (95% range 44%–97%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
+$55K
return +54.0%
Settled bets
6
$103K staked
Won
83.3%
95% range 44%–97%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$47K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$8.4K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | BUY Yes
@ 84¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | $20K |
| Sep 17 | BUY Yes
@ 53¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | $7.6K |
| Sep 17 | BUY No
@ 90¢
US recession by end of 2026? |
US recession by end of 2026? | $5.1K |
| Sep 17 | BUY Yes
@ 55¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | $33K |
| Sep 17 | BUY Yes
@ 55¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | $22K |
| Sep 16 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | $10K |
| Sep 16 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | $5.0K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Yes
@ 52¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | $1.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.