Dazzling-Hybridization-Calculation
0xf377b9fb12a4b7507a4f997461a73eb30b564159
Dazzling-Hybridization-Calculation: −$30K on 92 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 37% (95% range 28%–47%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$30K
return −8.9%
Settled bets
92
$337K staked
Won
37.0%
95% range 28%–47%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 58 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$30K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26 | BUY Cristina Bucsa
@ 48¢
Monterrey Open: Cristina Bucsa vs Darja Vidmanova |
Monterrey Open: Cristina Bucsa vs Darja Vidmanova | $4.8K |
| Aug 26 | BUY Cristina Bucsa
@ 52¢
Monterrey Open: Cristina Bucsa vs Darja Vidmanova |
Monterrey Open: Cristina Bucsa vs Darja Vidmanova | $3.2K |
| Aug 26 | SELL Moyuka Uchijima
@ 21¢
US Open, Qualification WTA: Moyuka Uchijima vs Lucie Havlickova |
US Open, Qualification WTA: Moyuka Uchijima vs Lucie Havlickova | $1.2K |
| Aug 26 | SELL Moyuka Uchijima
@ 21¢
US Open, Qualification WTA: Moyuka Uchijima vs Lucie Havlickova |
US Open, Qualification WTA: Moyuka Uchijima vs Lucie Havlickova | $3.5K |
| Aug 26 | BUY Toby Samuel
@ 58¢
US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Billy Harris |
US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Billy Harris | $3.0K |
| Aug 26 | SELL Mai Hontama
@ 14¢
US Open, Qualification WTA: Mai Hontama vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia |
US Open, Qualification WTA: Mai Hontama vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia | $1.1K |
| Aug 26 | BUY M80
@ 42¢
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 - Map 1 Winner | $3.0K |
| Aug 26 | BUY Cezar Cretu
@ 51¢
Augsburg: Cezar Cretu vs Miguel Damas |
Augsburg: Cezar Cretu vs Miguel Damas | $5.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.