Upset-Subject
Skill vs luck
Upset-Subject on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$1.0K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Upset-Subject: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xdbf16bcffa41bd95faec2640daa2c95ab2bd86b5. Data CC BY 4.0.
Upset-Subject: −$1.0K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 17 – Nov 1
- −$1.0K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | SELL No @ 89¢ | Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? ↗ | $74K |
| Oct 31 | SELL No @ 94¢ | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 30 | SELL Yes @ 23¢ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House ↗ | $16K |
| Oct 30 | SELL No @ 30¢ | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House ↗ | $2.2K |
| Oct 30 | SELL No @ 67¢ | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $7.3K |
| Oct 30 | SELL No @ 70¢ | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $3.0K |
| Oct 29 | SELL No @ 94¢ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House ↗ | $128K |
| Oct 28 | SELL No @ 95¢ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $20K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.