Gullible-Swimsuit
0xd83d9ee3e67fdee23ac8ec024ea57be2d7243bd8
Gullible-Swimsuit: −$540 on 11 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 91% (95% range 62%–98%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$540
return −1.9%
Settled bets
11
$29K staked
Won
90.9%
95% range 62%–98%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$1.0K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$31
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$471
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 | BUY Yes
@ 98¢
Will Estonia win on 2026-10-03? |
Will Estonia win on 2026-10-03? | $1.6K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Yes
@ 97¢
Will Estonia win on 2026-10-03? |
Will Estonia win on 2026-10-03? | $1.1K |
| Oct 1 | BUY No
@ 97¢
Will Denmark win on 2026-10-01? |
Will Denmark win on 2026-10-01? | $1.6K |
| Sep 28 | BUY Yes
@ 98¢
Will Montenegro win on 2026-09-28? |
Will Montenegro win on 2026-09-28? | $4.9K |
| Sep 26 | BUY No
@ 96¢
Will England win on 2026-09-26? |
Will England win on 2026-09-26? | $6.0K |
| Sep 21 | BUY Up
@ 99¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET | $1.6K |
| Sep 21 | BUY Up
@ 99¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET | $1.3K |
| Sep 18 | BUY Up
@ 99.9¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 12PM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 12PM ET | $1.8K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.