Intrepid-Gingerbread-Hexagon

0x9e53cfe3e881636f9415af925c3a9620f3ad53ae

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Intrepid-Gingerbread-Hexagon: +$4.2K on 22 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 55% (95% range 35%–73%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$4.2K
return +5.4%
Settled bets
22
$77K staked
Won
54.5%
95% range 35%–73%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 20 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$12K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$7.3K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
−$15K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 BUY @ 32¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Machac AND Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex Molcan vs Federico Cina AND Shanghai Rolex Masters: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Matteo Berrettini
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Machac AND Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex Molcan vs Federico Cina AND Shanghai Rolex Masters: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Matteo Berrettini $1.9K
Oct 6 BUY @ 18¢
Wild vs. Sabres AND Islanders vs. Rangers AND Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
Wild vs. Sabres AND Islanders vs. Rangers AND Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres $1.2K
Oct 6 BUY @ 11¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves AND Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres AND Switzerland leading at halftime? AND Spain leading at halftime?
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves AND Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres AND Switzerland leading at halftime? AND Spain leading at halftime? $1.4K
Oct 4 BUY Lions @ 53¢
Spread: Lions (-3.5)
Spread: Lions (-3.5) $3.9K
Oct 2 BUY Virginia Tech @ 48¢
Spread: Virginia Tech (-2.5)
Spread: Virginia Tech (-2.5) $3.5K
Sep 29 BUY No @ 54¢
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros $3.1K
Sep 28 BUY @ 27¢
Eagles vs. Bears: O/U 42.5 AND Spread: Eagles (-3.5)
Eagles vs. Bears: O/U 42.5 AND Spread: Eagles (-3.5) $1.4K
Sep 28 BUY Matteo Martineau @ 47¢
Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Clement Tabur vs Matteo Martineau
Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Clement Tabur vs Matteo Martineau $3.1K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed