Idolized-Apology-Lane
Skill vs luck
Idolized-Apology-Lane on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 15%–85%) · profit −$1.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 31, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Idolized-Apology-Lane: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 31, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x9d0dcd0c8aa0526303fd9e17fff4666ef52d2e6d. Data CC BY 4.0.
Idolized-Apology-Lane: −$1.8K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 15%–85%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 16 – Oct 31
- −$1.8K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | BUY No @ 73¢ | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 29 | BUY No @ 98¢ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 27 | BUY No @ 93¢ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 27 | BUY No @ 94¢ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 25 | SELL Yes @ 70¢ | Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 22 | BUY No @ 69¢ | Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 22 | BUY No @ 92¢ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 18 | BUY No @ 79¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $1.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.