Optimal-Pecan
0x7523cafcee7bcf2db9a79d80e0d79b88a9a54c4c
Optimal-Pecan: −$24K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 25% (95% range 5%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$24K
return −48.9%
Settled bets
4
$49K staked
Won
25.0%
95% range 5%–70%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$24K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will Mary Peltola win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? |
Will Mary Peltola win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? | $3.0K |
| Aug 25 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? |
Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | $6.1K |
| Aug 25 | BUY No
@ 97¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $24K |
| Aug 21 | BUY Yes
@ 69¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | $25K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.