True-Counsel
0x44a1159b925c145e70f746bb3f0f58380553bd21
True-Counsel: −$34K on 26 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 77% (95% range 58%–89%). Skill or luck: worse than the odds.
Profit
−$34K
return −23.0%
Settled bets
26
$147K staked
Won
76.9%
95% range 58%–89%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 25 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$42
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$21K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$13K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-09? |
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-09? | $5.0K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Aliaksandra Sasnovich
@ 99.9¢
Suzhou: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich |
Suzhou: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich | $25K |
| Oct 7 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will Benin win on 2026-10-06? |
Will Benin win on 2026-10-06? | $4.2K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Yes
@ 98¢
Will Albania win on 2026-10-06? |
Will Albania win on 2026-10-06? | $6.4K |
| Oct 6 | BUY No
@ 99.85¢
Will San Marino win on 2026-10-06? |
Will San Marino win on 2026-10-06? | $1.2K |
| Oct 6 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will Czechia win on 2026-10-06? |
Will Czechia win on 2026-10-06? | $3.8K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Commanders
@ 46¢
Spread: Colts (-3.5) |
Spread: Colts (-3.5) | $1.8K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will Spain win on 2026-10-03? |
Will Spain win on 2026-10-03? | $12K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.