Reckless-Derivation
0x246be8a4e3805e318801b79ad1ee1268d5fbfb5b
Reckless-Derivation: −$1.5K on 36 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 56% (95% range 40%–71%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$1.5K
return −1.4%
Settled bets
36
$106K staked
Won
55.6%
95% range 40%–71%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 22 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$1.6K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$9.5K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$6.4K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | BUY Jenson Brooksby
@ 80¢
Chengdu Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Lorenzo Sonego |
Chengdu Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Lorenzo Sonego | $2.3K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Kimberly Birrell
@ 68¢
Korea Open: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell |
Korea Open: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell | $2.0K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Texas Rangers
@ 73¢
New York Mets vs. Texas Rangers |
New York Mets vs. Texas Rangers | $2.0K |
| Sep 24 | SELL Guinea Pink
@ 99.9¢
LoL: Guinea Pink vs Kawaii Kiwis - Game 4 Winner |
LoL: Guinea Pink vs Kawaii Kiwis - Game 4 Winner | $2.4K |
| Sep 24 | SELL Andrea Guerrieri
@ 45¢
St. Tropez: Andrea Guerrieri vs Jesper de Jong |
St. Tropez: Andrea Guerrieri vs Jesper de Jong | $1.5K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Coleman Wong
@ 87¢
Hangzhou Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Coleman Wong |
Hangzhou Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Coleman Wong | $4.8K |
| Sep 24 | SELL Alexandra Eala
@ 23¢
Singapore Open: Tatiana Prozorova vs Alexandra Eala |
Singapore Open: Tatiana Prozorova vs Alexandra Eala | $1.1K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Jie Cui
@ 39¢
Hangzhou Open: Jie Cui vs Adolfo Vallejo |
Hangzhou Open: Jie Cui vs Adolfo Vallejo | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.