Wiry-Altitude-Deformation
Skill vs luck
Wiry-Altitude-Deformation on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit −$299. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +1.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 29, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Wiry-Altitude-Deformation: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 29, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x227f7ba7fcc35b7f8fc08aa6b075f5220da2a574. Data CC BY 4.0.
Wiry-Altitude-Deformation: −$299 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 15 – Oct 29
- −$299
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY No @ 79¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 27 | BUY No
@ 98¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | $1.3K |
| Oct 27 | BUY No
@ 98¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-21 House seat? |
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-21 House seat? | $1.2K |
| Oct 27 | BUY No @ 93¢ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 25 | SELL Yes @ 70¢ | Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 22 | BUY No @ 75¢ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 22 | BUY No @ 92¢ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 18 | BUY No @ 79¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $1.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.