Polymarket market · Sports
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan
Resolved: Adrian Mannarino won · See it on Polymarket ↗
6 whales traded $137K on this market since Oct 25, 75% of their buying on Adrian Mannarino. Copying their buys off the order book we recorded about 4 minutes later would have cost 7.4¢ more per share, with 100% of the size there to buy. Adrian Mannarino won, with 75% of the whale buying on it. Of the 4 whales whose whole position we captured, 1 made +$3.8K and 3 lost −$5.8K: −$2.0K between them. Biggest win: Scornful-Gym-Retreat, +$3.8K on Adrian Mannarino. Biggest loss: Gleeful-Cauliflower, −$3.0K on Alex Molcan.
The whales on this market
6 whales| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold | Made on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Embellished-Lecture
87 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Adrian Mannarino @ 37¢ | $14K | $111K | — |
| Gleeful-Cauliflower
5,130 settled bets Beat the odds* |
Alex Molcan @ 43¢ | $4.4K | — | −$3.0K |
| Scornful-Gym-Retreat
217 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Adrian Mannarino @ 44¢ | $3.0K | — | +$3.8K |
| Important-Deed-Nestmate
24 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $1.6K | — |
| 0x7750…a3f3
14 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Alex Molcan @ 29¢ | $1.5K | — | −$1.5K |
| Delirious-Summer
11 settled bets Too few bets |
Alex Molcan @ 57¢ | $1.3K | — | −$1.3K |
Where the whale money went
-
Adrian Mannarino won$18K75% of whale buying · 3 buyers · $113K sold
-
Alex Molcan lost$6.0K25% of whale buying · 3 buyers
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Oct 25, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1793084411).
More sports markets the whales bet on
All Sports →| Market | Whale money | Whales | Result | Last whale bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brentford FC win on 2026-10-25? | $96K | 10 | Won: No | |
| Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-25? | $57K | 10 | Won: Yes | |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-25? | $56K | 10 | Won: No | |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-25? | $68K | 17 | Won: Yes | |
| Spread: Vikings (-6.5) | $139K | 10 | Won: Colts | |
| Steelers vs. Saints: O/U 44.5 | $108K | 5 | Won: Under | |
| Will Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? | $144K | 6 | Won: No | |
| Spread: Panthers (-3.5) | $76K | 4 | Won: Buccaneers |
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?