Common-Comma
0xe9f5c75ee1ae1aae57bf8582e359913c795a3e7a
Common-Comma: −$1.9K on 16 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 56% (95% range 33%–77%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$1.9K
return −6.7%
Settled bets
16
$28K staked
Won
56.2%
95% range 33%–77%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 16 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$2.8K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$1.8K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$2.9K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | BUY Texans
@ 65¢
Spread: Texans (-4.5) |
Spread: Texans (-4.5) | $1.5K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Hawaii
@ 45¢
Spread: Hawai'i (-3.5) |
Spread: Hawai'i (-3.5) | $1.5K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Jets
@ 61¢
Spread: Packers (-6.5) |
Spread: Packers (-6.5) | $1.4K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Southern Illinois
@ 61¢
Spread: Illinois (-41.5) |
Spread: Illinois (-41.5) | $1.5K |
| Sep 19 | BUY KC
@ 51¢
Spread: KC (-5.5) |
Spread: KC (-5.5) | $1.1K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Peyton Stearns
@ 80¢
Guadalajara Open Akron: Liudmila Samsonova vs Peyton Stearns |
Guadalajara Open Akron: Liudmila Samsonova vs Peyton Stearns | $1.4K |
| Sep 18 | BUY Over
@ 42¢
Buffalo vs. Penn State: O/U 51.5 |
Buffalo vs. Penn State: O/U 51.5 | $1.1K |
| Sep 18 | BUY Vikings
@ 65¢
Spread: Bears (-9.5) |
Spread: Bears (-9.5) | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.