Bumpy-Burden
0xe6a9d2301ed7e1222002d04e9463c5f521d9e35a
Bumpy-Burden: −$11K on 40 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 38% (95% range 24%–53%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$11K
return −14.2%
Settled bets
40
$74K staked
Won
37.5%
95% range 24%–53%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 23 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$961
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$9.6K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY
@ 30¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Matteo Arnaldi vs Taylor Fritz AND Shanghai Rolex Masters: Learner Tien vs Zachary Svajda AND Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Tabilo vs Pablo Carreno Busta AND Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fils vs Pavel Kotov AND Shanghai Rolex Masters: Dalibor Svrcina vs Tomas Etcheverry |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Matteo Arnaldi vs Taylor Fritz AND Shanghai Rolex Masters: Learner Tien vs Zachary Svajda AND Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Tabilo vs Pablo Carreno Busta AND Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fils vs Pavel Kotov AND Shanghai Rolex Masters: Dalibor Svrcina vs Tomas Etcheverry | $1.0K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Northwestern
@ 99.9¢
Penn State vs. Northwestern |
Penn State vs. Northwestern | $13K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Dallas Wings
@ 56¢
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries |
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries | $3.0K |
| Oct 2 | SELL BetBoom Team
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner | $1.1K |
| Oct 2 | SELL Taylah Preston
@ 99.9¢
China Open: Taylah Preston vs Diane Parry |
China Open: Taylah Preston vs Diane Parry | $3.8K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Learner Tien
@ 60¢
China Open: Learner Tien vs Hubert Hurkacz |
China Open: Learner Tien vs Hubert Hurkacz | $2.1K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Adolfo Vallejo
@ 58¢
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Adolfo Vallejo vs Rafael Jodar |
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Adolfo Vallejo vs Rafael Jodar | $1.7K |
| Sep 28 | BUY Rams
@ 58¢
Rams vs. Broncos |
Rams vs. Broncos | $5.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.