Teeming-Ritual

0xdebbe89ceb32828a99648bca497684f5209ceedb

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Teeming-Ritual: −$2.6K on 45 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 58% (95% range 43%–71%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$2.6K
return −3.4%
Settled bets
45
$77K staked
Won
57.8%
95% range 43%–71%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 45 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
−$490
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$1.8K
Sep 23 – Oct 11
−$299
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 BUY Aliona Falei @ 45¢
Suzhou: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Aliona Falei
Suzhou: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Aliona Falei $1.1K
Oct 5 BUY Yes @ 45¢
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Poland: Draw at halftime?
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Poland: Draw at halftime? $1.9K
Oct 5 BUY Daniel Merida Aguilar @ 54¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Daniel Merida Aguilar $1.0K
Oct 3 BUY Tomas Barrios @ 68¢
Curitiba: Guido Justo vs Tomas Barrios
Curitiba: Guido Justo vs Tomas Barrios $1.0K
Oct 2 BUY Under @ 97¢
Argentina vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 8.5
Argentina vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 8.5 $1.0K
Oct 1 BUY Yes @ 58¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? $1.2K
Oct 1 BUY Yes @ 58¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? $1.2K
Oct 1 BUY Over @ 51¢
Germany vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5
Germany vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5 $2.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed