Adolescent-Style-Brief
0xd88ad596fa48b3ea6acac2c699bba7a92abca7e4
Adolescent-Style-Brief: +$53K on 62 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 68% (95% range 55%–78%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$53K
return +21.6%
Settled bets
62
$247K staked
Won
67.7%
95% range 55%–78%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 44 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$981
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$2.1K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$52K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | BUY
@ 38¢
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians AND Spread: Saints (-3.5) |
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians AND Spread: Saints (-3.5) | $1.5K |
| Oct 5 | SELL
@ 99.85¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage AND Counter-Strike: M80 vs TYLOO (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage AND Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage AND Counter-Strike: M80 vs TYLOO (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage AND Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $1.6K |
| Oct 4 | BUY MOUZ
@ 67¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $2.0K |
| Oct 4 | SELL
@ 99.6¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage AND Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage AND Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $3.9K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Montana State
@ 71¢
Montana State vs. Idaho |
Montana State vs. Idaho | $1.3K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Golden State Valkyries
@ 99¢
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries |
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries | $1.6K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Dallas Wings
@ 41¢
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries |
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries | $1.1K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Golden State Valkyries
@ 47¢
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries |
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries | $1.8K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.