Careful-Gazebo
0xd38b71f3e8ed1af71983e5c309eac3dfa9b35029
Careful-Gazebo: +$26K on 84 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 46% (95% range 36%–57%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$26K
return +4.3%
Settled bets
84
$601K staked
Won
46.4%
95% range 36%–57%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 84 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$55K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$81K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY Under
@ 76¢
Iowa State vs. BYU: O/U 45.5 |
Iowa State vs. BYU: O/U 45.5 | $4.9K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Under
@ 54¢
Iowa State vs. BYU: O/U 39.5 |
Iowa State vs. BYU: O/U 39.5 | $1.8K |
| Oct 10 | BUY BYU
@ 45¢
Spread: BYU (-16.5) |
Spread: BYU (-16.5) | $2.0K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Utah State
@ 53¢
Washington State vs. Utah State |
Washington State vs. Utah State | $3.4K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Iowa
@ 45¢
Iowa vs. Washington |
Iowa vs. Washington | $3.0K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Over
@ 57¢
Florida State vs. Louisville: O/U 61.5 |
Florida State vs. Louisville: O/U 61.5 | $2.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Over
@ 42¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: O/U 47.5 |
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: O/U 47.5 | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Buccaneers
@ 52¢
Spread: Buccaneers (-7.5) |
Spread: Buccaneers (-7.5) | $1.8K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.