Actual-Respite
0xd0520675a584f636a29bbf6ffef31f4c2ee9563d
Actual-Respite: −$2.5K on 19 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 53% (95% range 32%–73%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$2.5K
return −8.8%
Settled bets
19
$29K staked
Won
52.6%
95% range 32%–73%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 17 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$287
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$2.2K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | SELL Spirit
@ 99.9¢
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) | $1.6K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Under
@ 65¢
Croatia vs. England: O/U 3.5 |
Croatia vs. England: O/U 3.5 | $1.5K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Karmine Corp
@ 58¢
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Group D |
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Group D | $1.5K |
| Oct 3 | BUY G2 Esports
@ 54¢
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C |
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C | $1.6K |
| Oct 2 | BUY
@ 48¢
Belgium vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 AND France vs. Italy: O/U 3.5 |
Belgium vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 AND France vs. Italy: O/U 3.5 | $1.1K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Global Esports
@ 44¢
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) | $1.2K |
| Sep 21 | BUY LGD Gaming
@ 61¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage | $1.2K |
| Sep 20 | BUY G2 Esports
@ 64¢
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.