Ill-Mind
0xcf609d3256f0f37f0595e5dc64012fa3a8fea6f5
Ill-Mind: −$22K on 109 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 41% (95% range 33%–51%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$22K
return −9.6%
Settled bets
109
$234K staked
Won
41.3%
95% range 33%–51%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 70 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$16K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$5.4K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$12K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY NRG
@ 58¢
Valorant: NRG vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs |
Valorant: NRG vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | $2.9K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Aurora
@ 66¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner | $3.3K |
| Oct 9 | BUY 100 Thieves
@ 63¢
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs |
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | $1.1K |
| Oct 8 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 58¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner | $2.9K |
| Oct 7 | BUY NRG
@ 72¢
Valorant: NRG vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs |
Valorant: NRG vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | $5.0K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 62¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $1.1K |
| Oct 5 | SELL Team Falcons
@ 99.9¢
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) | $1.0K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Over
@ 48¢
Games Total: O/U 2.5 |
Games Total: O/U 2.5 | $2.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.