Forked-Standardization
Skill vs luck
Forked-Standardization on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–66%) · profit −$3.0K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +1.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 29, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Forked-Standardization: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 29, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xca8124061d07903c2e83ec4ce6a3d2f380377c38. Data CC BY 4.0.
Forked-Standardization: −$3.0K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–66%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 3 – Sep 17
- −$1.9K
- Oct 1 – Oct 15
- −$1.1K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 | SELL No @ 9¢ | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? ↗ | $2.5K |
| Oct 14 | BUY Yes @ 22¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 7 | BUY No @ 8¢ | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 3 | SELL No @ 82¢ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $4.8K |
| Sep 11 | BUY No @ 39¢ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.9K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.