Zesty-Credit-Maniac

0xca6465345246f543b7cb3152d5f5f54096f84f43

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Zesty-Credit-Maniac: +$52K on 43 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 58% (95% range 43%–72%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$52K
return +17.4%
Settled bets
43
$295K staked
Won
58.1%
95% range 43%–72%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 22 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$47K
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$36K
Sep 23 – Oct 11
+$40K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 9 BUY Yes @ 66¢
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-09?
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-09? $1.1K
Oct 6 BUY Yes @ 40¢
Will Spain win on 2026-10-06?
Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? $5.2K
Oct 6 BUY Yes @ 78¢
Will Spain win on 2026-10-06?
Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? $40K
Oct 4 BUY Yes @ 60¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?
Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04? $5.0K
Oct 3 SELL Under @ 99.9¢
North Macedonia vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5
North Macedonia vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 $1.1K
Oct 3 BUY Yes @ 57¢
Will England win on 2026-10-03?
Will England win on 2026-10-03? $2.1K
Oct 3 SELL Yes @ 89¢
Will Finland win on 2026-10-03?
Will Finland win on 2026-10-03? $4.5K
Oct 3 BUY Yes @ 39¢
Will Finland win on 2026-10-03?
Will Finland win on 2026-10-03? $1.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed