Cautious-Present
Skill vs luck
Cautious-Present on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 25% (95% range 7%–59%) · profit −$6.4K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 31, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Cautious-Present: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 31, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xbdcb2998bc3ef02ae98f82117d0db1e34d2e36c9. Data CC BY 4.0.
Cautious-Present: −$6.4K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 25% (95% range 7%–59%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 16 – Oct 31
- −$6.4K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | SELL Nauhany Leme Da Silva @ 99.9¢ | Curitiba: Francesca Jones vs Nauhany Leme Da Silva ↗ | $5.0K |
| Oct 30 | SELL Valentin Vacherot @ 99.9¢ | Swiss Indoors Basel: Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherot ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Martyna Kubka
@ 40¢
Courmayeur: Anna Blinkova vs Martyna Kubka |
Courmayeur: Anna Blinkova vs Martyna Kubka | $2.0K |
| Oct 30 | SELL Han Shi @ 15¢ | Guangzhou Open: Lilli Tagger vs Han Shi ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Xinran Sun @ 62¢ | Guangzhou Open: Xinran Sun vs Claire Liu ↗ | $2.2K |
| Oct 30 | SELL Alicia Herrero Linana @ 48¢ | Queretaro: Tamara Zidansek vs Alicia Herrero Linana ↗ | $7.5K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Alicia Herrero Linana @ 29¢ | Queretaro: Tamara Zidansek vs Alicia Herrero Linana ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 30 | SELL Top Esports @ 99.9¢ | LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $8.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.