Lumpy-Video
0xbc5613462ce3902eea10874a11cf74191f4a8f28
Lumpy-Video: −$7.2K on 21 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 38% (95% range 21%–59%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$7.2K
return −27.1%
Settled bets
21
$27K staked
Won
38.1%
95% range 21%–59%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 19 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$4.5K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$1.6K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$1.2K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | BUY Eagles
@ 52¢
Spread: Rams (-3.5) |
Spread: Rams (-3.5) | $1.2K |
| Sep 17 | BUY No
@ 53¢
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-09-17? |
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-09-17? | $1.1K |
| Sep 16 | SELL Yes
@ 44¢
Will AC Milan win on 2026-09-16? |
Will AC Milan win on 2026-09-16? | $1.9K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Under
@ 50¢
Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5 |
Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5 | $1.1K |
| Sep 14 | BUY Under
@ 53¢
Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 43.5 |
Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 43.5 | $1.5K |
| Sep 12 | BUY No
@ 56¢
Will FC Seoul win on 2026-09-12? |
Will FC Seoul win on 2026-09-12? | $1.1K |
| Sep 10 | BUY No
@ 48¢
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-13? |
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-13? | $1.5K |
| Aug 31 | BUY Under
@ 45¢
Aston Villa FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 |
Aston Villa FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 | $2.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.