Cautious-Backup
0xb6ce76828a51b382f7e88cbb9baa0f03f9c17a7d
Cautious-Backup: +$11K on 100 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 58% (95% range 48%–67%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$11K
return +4.4%
Settled bets
100
$250K staked
Won
58.0%
95% range 48%–67%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 100 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$21
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$11K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY Aurora
@ 61¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner | $1.8K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 63¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner | $3.2K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 41¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner | $1.2K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 44¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner | $1.3K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Legacy
@ 55¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $1.7K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Legacy
@ 49¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 - Map 2 Winner | $1.5K |
| Oct 6 | BUY BetBoom Team
@ 54¢
Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner | $1.5K |
| Oct 6 | BUY 1WIN
@ 68¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 1WIN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 1WIN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $2.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.