Clear-Barley

0xa83f8475539bd448e6e6c84cc759ac841101b857

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Clear-Barley: +$2.9K on 19 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 79% (95% range 57%–92%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$2.9K
return +5.4%
Settled bets
19
$54K staked
Won
78.9%
95% range 57%–92%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 19 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$628
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$4.7K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
−$2.5K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 1 BUY Astralis @ 74¢
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner $1.7K
Oct 1 BUY Astralis @ 63¢
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs $1.3K
Sep 25 BUY Nemiga @ 75¢
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs $1.5K
Sep 18 BUY MOUZ @ 50¢
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) $6.0K
Sep 18 BUY MOUZ @ 63¢
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs $1.8K
Sep 17 BUY FURIA @ 51¢
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MIBR (+3.5)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MIBR (+3.5) $4.1K
Sep 17 BUY FURIA @ 49¢
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MIBR (+3.5)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MIBR (+3.5) $5.5K
Sep 17 BUY NRG @ 99¢
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs NRG - Map 1 Winner
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs NRG - Map 1 Winner $4.9K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed