Heavenly-Numismatist

0x9f2fe025f84839ca81dd8e0338892605702d2ca8

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Heavenly-Numismatist: +$196K on 23 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 65% (95% range 45%–81%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$196K
return +60.4%
Settled bets
23
$324K staked
Won
65.2%
95% range 45%–81%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 20 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
−$2.4K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$55K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$143K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 6 BUY Saints @ 11¢
Falcons vs. Saints
Falcons vs. Saints $2.8K
Oct 5 BUY Italy @ 47¢
Spread: Italy (-1.5)
Spread: Italy (-1.5) $1.9K
Oct 5 BUY Yes @ 71¢
Will Italy win on 2026-10-05?
Will Italy win on 2026-10-05? $7.3K
Oct 5 SELL Lions @ 58¢
Lions vs. Panthers
Lions vs. Panthers $24K
Oct 4 BUY Chargers @ 18¢
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5) $9.0K
Oct 4 BUY Bears @ 90¢
Jets vs. Bears
Jets vs. Bears $5.0K
Oct 4 BUY Colts @ 62¢
Colts vs. Commanders
Colts vs. Commanders $6.2K
Oct 4 BUY Colts @ 60¢
Colts vs. Commanders
Colts vs. Commanders $39K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed