Ugly-Efficacy
Skill vs luck
Ugly-Efficacy on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 44%–100%) · profit +$2.9K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Ugly-Efficacy: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x9a4a4764d10916b32040f5c145e61e98ccb5170f. Data CC BY 4.0.
Ugly-Efficacy: +$2.9K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 44%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- +$2.7K
- Oct 17 – Nov 1
- +$288
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | BUY No @ 95¢ | Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? ↗ | $5.0K |
| Oct 28 | BUY Yes @ 98¢ | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | $1.4K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Yes @ 88¢ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? ↗ | $4.1K |
| Sep 11 | BUY Yes @ 79¢ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? ↗ | $7.9K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.