Frozen-Birdwatcher
0x996ac56c9e72b6ca38a30ae9f6e85152d9afe3cc
Frozen-Birdwatcher: −$49K on 80 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 86% (95% range 77%–92%). Skill or luck: worse than the odds.
Profit
−$49K
return −6.0%
Settled bets
80
$820K staked
Won
86.3%
95% range 77%–92%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 76 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$35K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$13K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$1.9K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | BUY Arthur Fery
@ 99.9¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic | $7.1K |
| Oct 4 | SELL Panthers
@ 33¢
Lions vs. Panthers |
Lions vs. Panthers | $1.2K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Yes
@ 99.1¢
Will Spain win on 2026-10-03? |
Will Spain win on 2026-10-03? | $27K |
| Oct 3 | SELL No
@ 91¢
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? |
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | $4.6K |
| Oct 2 | BUY No
@ 57¢
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? |
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? | $5.7K |
| Sep 30 | SELL Yes
@ 10¢
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? |
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | $1.2K |
| Sep 30 | SELL Yes
@ 52¢
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? |
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | $1.3K |
| Sep 29 | BUY Henrique Rocha
@ 99.9¢
Porto 2: Cezar Cretu vs Henrique Rocha |
Porto 2: Cezar Cretu vs Henrique Rocha | $81K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.