Esteemed-Cloves

0x924379a79c64b77ad5816ad362122a5f6228658e

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
+$171K
return +11.7%
Settled bets
52
$1.46M staked
Won
48.1%
95% range 35%–61%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 52 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: −$33K Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$3.6K Sep 20 – Oct 5: +$208K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 5 Bought Saints at 53¢
Falcons vs. Saints
Falcons vs. Saints $28K
Oct 5 Bought Saints at 47¢
Spread: Saints (-2.5)
Spread: Saints (-2.5) $1.2K
Oct 5 Bought Saints at 47¢
Spread: Saints (-2.5)
Spread: Saints (-2.5) $52K
Oct 5 Bought Saints at 53¢
Falcons vs. Saints
Falcons vs. Saints $6.7K
Oct 5 Bought Saints at 53¢
Falcons vs. Saints
Falcons vs. Saints $7.3K
Oct 5 Bought Saints at 53¢
Falcons vs. Saints
Falcons vs. Saints $27K
Oct 5 Bought Saints at 53¢
Falcons vs. Saints
Falcons vs. Saints $64K
Oct 5 Bought Saints at 50¢
Spread: Saints (-1.5)
Spread: Saints (-1.5) $35K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed