Salty-Wording-Breadcrumb
0x8bfee7aeca33003fe9d7398d5143dc7866542d74
Salty-Wording-Breadcrumb: −$12K on 44 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 59% (95% range 44%–72%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$12K
return −2.3%
Settled bets
44
$512K staked
Won
59.1%
95% range 44%–72%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 27 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$18K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$3.3K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$2.6K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
In the live feed
BUY
$6.1K
bought Jakub Mensik
@ 79¢ → won (+$1.6K)
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | BUY Jakub Mensik
@ 79¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Jakub Mensik |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Jakub Mensik | $3.6K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Jakub Mensik
@ 80¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Jakub Mensik |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Jakub Mensik | $2.5K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Yes
@ 48¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-10? |
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-10? | $1.9K |
| Oct 10 | SELL Florida State
@ 24¢
Florida State vs. Louisville |
Florida State vs. Louisville | $11K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Florida State
@ 83¢
Florida State vs. Louisville |
Florida State vs. Louisville | $10K |
| Sep 11 | BUY Alexander Zverev
@ 95¢
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov |
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov | $13K |
| Sep 11 | BUY Alexander Zverev
@ 95¢
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov |
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov | $4.9K |
| Sep 11 | BUY Alexander Zverev
@ 95¢
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov |
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov | $34K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.