Hasty-Chain
Skill vs luck
Hasty-Chain on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 34%–100%) · profit +$2.6K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 4, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Hasty-Chain: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 4, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x8633c1c6844c5928b284a71e211584739474a08d. Data CC BY 4.0.
Hasty-Chain: +$2.6K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 34%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 20 – Nov 4
- +$2.6K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BUY No @ 71¢ | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? ↗ | $9.2K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Yes @ 72¢ | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? ↗ | $5.8K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Yes @ 87¢ | Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 31 | BUY No
@ 83¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? |
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | $1.2K |
| Oct 31 | SELL No @ 95¢ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House ↗ | $19K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Yes @ 82¢ | Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? ↗ | $7.3K |
| Oct 31 | SELL Yes
@ 34¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | $5.7K |
| Oct 29 | BUY No
@ 86¢
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? |
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | $1.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.