Crisp-Official
Skill vs luck
Crisp-Official on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit −$18. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Crisp-Official: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x6e9a6afde1e8bd4a0c7bf2809cf87fe14c00f3bb. Data CC BY 4.0.
Crisp-Official: −$18 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- +$4
- Oct 17 – Nov 1
- −$22
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | BUY Yes @ 96¢ | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $3.7K |
| Oct 28 | SELL Yes @ 99.01¢ | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | $2.5K |
| Oct 28 | BUY No @ 92¢ | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 27 | SELL No @ 64¢ | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 27 | BUY No @ 63¢ | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 27 | SELL Yes @ 36¢ | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Yes @ 67¢ | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House ↗ | $1.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.