Monumental-Circumstance
0x69ddcbd8237d53ed081dc586a184b27464931964
Monumental-Circumstance: +$3.9K on 18 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 61% (95% range 39%–80%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$3.9K
return +7.9%
Settled bets
18
$50K staked
Won
61.1%
95% range 39%–80%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 15 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$4.0K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$5.0K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$5.0K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | BUY Yes
@ 51¢
Will Germany win on 2026-10-04? |
Will Germany win on 2026-10-04? | $5.0K |
| Sep 20 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will AZ win on 2026-09-20? |
Will AZ win on 2026-09-20? | $2.6K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Yes
@ 77¢
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-09-20? |
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-09-20? | $2.0K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Yes
@ 60¢
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-09-19? |
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-09-19? | $3.0K |
| Sep 18 | BUY No
@ 64¢
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-09-18? |
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-09-18? | $1.0K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Yes
@ 86¢
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-12? |
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-12? | $2.5K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Yes
@ 62¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-12? |
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-12? | $2.0K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Yes
@ 72¢
Will FC Porto win on 2026-09-12? |
Will FC Porto win on 2026-09-12? | $2.9K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.