Imaginative-Conspiracy
0x663497a3341c9334709b089b0b3dd587d56a7d33
Imaginative-Conspiracy: −$9.5K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 12%–77%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$9.5K
return −46.0%
Settled bets
5
$21K staked
Won
40.0%
95% range 12%–77%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$8.3K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$1.9K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$649
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 | BUY Yes
@ 93¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? | $9.0K |
| Sep 19 | SELL Yes
@ 81¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | $8.1K |
| Sep 2 | BUY Yes
@ 72¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | $5.7K |
| Aug 26 | BUY No
@ 85¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? |
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? | $3.0K |
| Aug 22 | BUY Yes
@ 91¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? |
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? | $3.1K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.