0x4fdc…ca1f
0x4fdcf76bb5ae86a6c7ebc3779f078791a279ca1f
0x4fdc…ca1f: −$33K on 10 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 17%–69%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$33K
return −26.0%
Settled bets
10
$126K staked
Won
40.0%
95% range 17%–69%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$33K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 | BUY Xinran Sun
@ 37¢
China Open: Xinran Sun vs Cristina Bucsa |
China Open: Xinran Sun vs Cristina Bucsa | $2.9K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Anastasia Zakharova
@ 21¢
China Open: Belinda Bencic vs Anastasia Zakharova |
China Open: Belinda Bencic vs Anastasia Zakharova | $10K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Anna Kalinskaya
@ 41¢
China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Anna Kalinskaya |
China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Anna Kalinskaya | $20K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Leylah Fernandez
@ 59¢
China Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Leylah Fernandez |
China Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Leylah Fernandez | $30K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Northwestern
@ 44¢
Penn State vs. Northwestern |
Penn State vs. Northwestern | $18K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Darwin Blanch
@ 35¢
Columbus: Darwin Blanch vs Dylan Dietrich |
Columbus: Darwin Blanch vs Dylan Dietrich | $3.5K |
| Sep 29 | BUY Eagles
@ 44¢
Spread: Eagles (-3.5) |
Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | $11K |
| Sep 28 | BUY Carolina Kuhl
@ 62¢
W100 Templeton, CA: Carolina Kuhl vs Anne Christine Lutkemeyer |
W100 Templeton, CA: Carolina Kuhl vs Anne Christine Lutkemeyer | $2.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.