Medium-Electrocardiogram-Compassion

0x4dd24f21b6c8adc8a059dca1a0346a3aa99214c2

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Medium-Electrocardiogram-Compassion: +$14K on 20 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 70% (95% range 48%–86%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$14K
return +51.5%
Settled bets
20
$27K staked
Won
70.0%
95% range 48%–86%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 18 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$416
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$4.9K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$8.4K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 BUY Blues @ 55¢
Sharks vs. Blues
Sharks vs. Blues $1.8K
Oct 4 BUY Under @ 47¢
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 $1.4K
Oct 4 BUY Golden Knights @ 47¢
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) $1.1K
Oct 3 BUY Senators @ 49¢
Senators vs. Maple Leafs
Senators vs. Maple Leafs $1.2K
Oct 2 BUY Blues @ 37¢
Blues vs. Stars
Blues vs. Stars $1.2K
Sep 25 BUY Over @ 55¢
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 $1.4K
Sep 24 BUY Under @ 48¢
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 $1.6K
Sep 24 SELL Over @ 39¢
Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 $2.3K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed