Mild-Contingency
0x4755188644460fc8140a18ccefc1e80b6a5e4158
Mild-Contingency: −$6.8K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 20% (95% range 4%–62%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$6.8K
return −70.2%
Settled bets
5
$9.7K staked
Won
20.0%
95% range 4%–62%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$6.2K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$643
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$9
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | BUY Yes
@ 61¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? |
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | $1.8K |
| Sep 30 | BUY Yes
@ 57¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? |
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | $3.7K |
| Sep 30 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? |
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? | $9.2K |
| Sep 17 | BUY No
@ 90¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House |
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | $37K |
| Sep 17 | SELL No
@ 93¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | $37K |
| Sep 16 | BUY No
@ 56¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | $2.4K |
| Sep 16 | SELL Yes
@ 5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September? |
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September? | $1.6K |
| Sep 15 | BUY Yes
@ 12¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September? |
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September? | $2.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.