Turbulent-Bore

0x3957fb024ae4314fafd2fae943965fdebeda35f0

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Turbulent-Bore: −$4.8K on 23 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 48% (95% range 29%–67%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$4.8K
return −17.6%
Settled bets
23
$28K staked
Won
47.8%
95% range 29%–67%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 13 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
−$2.7K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
−$550
Sep 20 – Oct 5
−$1.6K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 BUY Coco Gauff @ 79¢
China Open: Coco Gauff vs Elise Mertens
China Open: Coco Gauff vs Elise Mertens $1.0K
Oct 6 BUY Aliona Falei @ 86¢
Suzhou: Hanyu Guo vs Aliona Falei
Suzhou: Hanyu Guo vs Aliona Falei $2.3K
Oct 4 BUY Diana Shnaider @ 83¢
China Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Diana Shnaider
China Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Diana Shnaider $1.7K
Oct 4 BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 83¢
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov $1.4K
Oct 3 BUY Qinwen Zheng @ 84¢
China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Anna Kalinskaya
China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Anna Kalinskaya $1.7K
Sep 25 BUY Nishesh Basavareddy @ 75¢
San Diego 2: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Keaton Hance
San Diego 2: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Keaton Hance $1.3K
Sep 24 BUY Alexandra Eala @ 82¢
Singapore Open: Tatiana Prozorova vs Alexandra Eala
Singapore Open: Tatiana Prozorova vs Alexandra Eala $1.2K
Sep 23 BUY Sinja Kraus @ 85¢
Porto: Matilde Jorge vs Sinja Kraus
Porto: Matilde Jorge vs Sinja Kraus $1.4K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed