Urban-Cape-Disk
0x31706006a0ef88b2b8f6d093efbc83b359fbc6a0
Urban-Cape-Disk: +$14K on 80 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 48% (95% range 37%–58%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$14K
return +2.3%
Settled bets
80
$630K staked
Won
47.5%
95% range 37%–58%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 77 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$3.3K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$15K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$2.6K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | BUY Yes
@ 40¢
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-10-06? |
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-10-06? | $12K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Czechia
@ 41¢
Spread: Spain (-2.5) |
Spread: Spain (-2.5) | $1.1K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Slovakia
@ 33¢
Spread: Slovakia (-1.5) |
Spread: Slovakia (-1.5) | $2.1K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Chicago Cubs
@ 44¢
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres |
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres | $3.3K |
| Sep 28 | BUY Yes
@ 39¢
Will Italy win on 2026-09-28? |
Will Italy win on 2026-09-28? | $2.8K |
| Sep 27 | BUY Yes
@ 1¢
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? |
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | $1.3K |
| Sep 23 | BUY Toronto Blue Jays
@ 46¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles |
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles | $11K |
| Sep 23 | BUY Los Angeles Dodgers
@ 55¢
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers |
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | $2.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.