Hearty-Molar
Skill vs luck
Hearty-Molar on Polymarket: 9 settled bets · won 78% (95% range 45%–94%) · profit −$584. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 4, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Hearty-Molar: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 4, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x1f5f9fa318fbda8350ac143b4df657287df850fa. Data CC BY 4.0.
Hearty-Molar: −$584 on 9 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 78% (95% range 45%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 8 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 19 – Oct 4
- +$2.4K
- Oct 4 – Oct 20
- −$730
- Oct 20 – Nov 4
- −$2.3K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BUY No @ 76¢ | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? ↗ | $1.1K |
| Nov 2 | BUY No @ 76¢ | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? ↗ | $1.1K |
| Nov 2 | BUY No
@ 94¢
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? |
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | $1.3K |
| Nov 2 | BUY No @ 64¢ | Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? ↗ | $1.3K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Yes
@ 94¢
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? |
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | $1.2K |
| Nov 1 | BUY No @ 68¢ | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? ↗ | $1.3K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Yes @ 97¢ | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Nov 1 | BUY No @ 49¢ | Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? ↗ | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.