Homely-Amenity
Skill vs luck
Homely-Amenity on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit +$610. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Homely-Amenity: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd. Data CC BY 4.0.
Homely-Amenity: +$610 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- +$610
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | BUY Yes @ 97¢ | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 28 | BUY No @ 97¢ | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? ↗ | $4.2K |
| Oct 27 | BUY No @ 97¢ | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 27 | SELL No @ 92¢ | US recession by end of 2026? ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 27 | BUY No @ 97¢ | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? ↗ | $4.9K |
| Oct 26 | SELL No
@ 96¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027? |
China x Japan military clash before 2027? | $1.9K |
| Sep 25 | BUY No
@ 57¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? |
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | $1.1K |
| Sep 17 | SELL No @ 99.34¢ | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? ↗ | $3.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.