Creepy-Flintlock

0x0b0e1eb890038cc0f98d26d34842bbe4d1434826

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Creepy-Flintlock: +$16K on 14 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 79% (95% range 52%–92%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$16K
return +29.4%
Settled bets
14
$53K staked
Won
78.6%
95% range 52%–92%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 13 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$13K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$2.2K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 4 BUY Yes @ 69¢
Portugal vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score
Portugal vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score $2.5K
Sep 25 BUY Yes @ 73¢
Will France win on 2026-09-25?
Will France win on 2026-09-25? $3.0K
Sep 19 BUY No @ 65¢
Will AS Roma win on 2026-09-19?
Will AS Roma win on 2026-09-19? $7.4K
Sep 18 BUY No @ 65¢
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-09-18?
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-09-18? $5.0K
Sep 18 BUY Yes @ 53¢
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-09-18?
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-09-18? $1.2K
Sep 18 BUY No @ 78¢
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-09-18?
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-09-18? $3.9K
Sep 16 BUY Yes @ 47¢
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-09-16?
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-09-16? $2.5K
Sep 16 BUY No @ 73¢
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-09-16?
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-09-16? $10K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed