Good-Natured-Announcement
0x02571ed3bfa4162c80b288310745503275a822b2
Good-Natured-Announcement: −$7.3K on 26 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 39% (95% range 22%–57%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$7.3K
return −28.8%
Settled bets
26
$25K staked
Won
38.5%
95% range 22%–57%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 18 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$3.0K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$223
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$4.1K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | SELL Qinwen Zheng
@ 92¢
China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elise Mertens |
China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elise Mertens | $1.8K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Spirit
@ 59¢
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | BUY MOUZ
@ 53¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner | $1.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Vitality
@ 71¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner | $1.6K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Aurora Gaming
@ 99.27¢
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | $1.8K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Aurora Gaming
@ 71¢
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | $1.6K |
| Oct 5 | SELL Novak Djokovic
@ 67¢
China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev |
China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev | $1.0K |
| Oct 5 | SELL Iga Swiatek
@ 57¢
China Open: Donna Vekic vs Iga Swiatek |
China Open: Donna Vekic vs Iga Swiatek | $1.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.