Noisy-Dearest
0xff80bb23621f03fc6300808730316c78abe09b4d
Noisy-Dearest: +$26K on 49 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 41% (95% range 28%–55%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$26K
return +50.5%
Settled bets
49
$52K staked
Won
40.8%
95% range 28%–55%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 18 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$1.6K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$179
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$28K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
In the live feed
SELL
$15K
sold Sinja Kraus
@ 99.9¢ → won
BUY
$5.9K
bought Peyton Stearns
@ 52¢ → lost (−$5.9K)
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY San Jose State
@ 77¢
Wyoming vs. San Jose State |
Wyoming vs. San Jose State | $2.4K |
| Oct 10 | SELL Atlanta Dream
@ 82¢
Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty |
Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty | $2.7K |
| Oct 9 | BUY LGD Gaming
@ 35¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner | $1.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 77¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner | $7.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Aurora
@ 44¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner | $4.1K |
| Oct 9 | SELL T1
@ 99.9¢
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) | $9.8K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Aurora Gaming
@ 49¢
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs 1WIN (+3.5) |
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs 1WIN (+3.5) | $5.9K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Rebecca Sramkova
@ 70¢
Suzhou: Aliona Falei vs Rebecca Sramkova |
Suzhou: Aliona Falei vs Rebecca Sramkova | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.