Vigilant-Forever
0xfeb99d66220e6b94799f4ef0a3cfb12b3f9495c9
Vigilant-Forever: −$10K on 35 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 31% (95% range 19%–48%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$10K
return −21.3%
Settled bets
35
$48K staked
Won
31.4%
95% range 19%–48%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 21 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$2.4K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$1.6K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$11K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | SELL Pablo Carreno Busta
@ 88¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta | $2.6K |
| Oct 4 | SELL Chiefs
@ 96¢
Chiefs vs. Raiders |
Chiefs vs. Raiders | $1.4K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Milwaukee Brewers
@ 39¢
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers |
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers | $2.0K |
| Oct 3 | BUY G2
@ 35¢
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $1.9K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Luminosity
@ 65¢
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Nemiga - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Nemiga - Map 1 Winner | $2.6K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Under
@ 39¢
Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 41.5 |
Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 41.5 | $1.6K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Under
@ 53¢
Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 41.5 |
Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 41.5 | $3.7K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Washington Mystics
@ 23¢
Atlanta Dream vs. Washington Mystics |
Atlanta Dream vs. Washington Mystics | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.