Fickle-Scholar
0xfc243dcdc24e9877078ca2d5956b9160164727f1
Fickle-Scholar: −$23K on 29 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 28% (95% range 15%–46%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$23K
return −33.4%
Settled bets
29
$69K staked
Won
27.6%
95% range 15%–46%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 19 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$8.4K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$15K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 | SELL Team Yandex
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner | $2.6K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Natus Vincere
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner | $1.8K |
| Oct 3 | SELL 1win
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: 1win vs OG - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs OG - Game 2 Winner | $1.6K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Nemiga
@ 39¢
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Nemiga - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Nemiga - Map 2 Winner | $1.5K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Astralis
@ 57¢
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs | $5.1K |
| Oct 1 | SELL Aurora
@ 37¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group D |
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group D | $4.4K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Aurora
@ 74¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group D |
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group D | $4.0K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Aurora
@ 68¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group D |
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group D | $5.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.