Bruised-Steppingstone
Skill vs luck
Bruised-Steppingstone on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$954. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Bruised-Steppingstone: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xf73f7e9c6bd1f40dc045d2a93bec3dd4248aee53. Data CC BY 4.0.
Bruised-Steppingstone: −$954 on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- −$954
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | BUY No @ 16¢ | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 28 | BUY Yes @ 63¢ | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | $3.2K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Yes @ 67¢ | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | $4.0K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Yes @ 64¢ | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Yes @ 74¢ | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? ↗ | $3.7K |
| Oct 26 | SELL Yes @ 68¢ | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? ↗ | $2.7K |
| Oct 26 | SELL Yes @ 65¢ | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? ↗ | $1.9K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?