Shimmering-Reindeer
0xf6eab31d96d24310f33f258bc48a01bd48bc0a00
Shimmering-Reindeer: −$1.1K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 20% (95% range 4%–62%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$1.1K
return −75.2%
Settled bets
5
$1.5K staked
Won
20.0%
95% range 4%–62%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$1.0K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$66
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | SELL No
@ 89¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? |
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | $2.8K |
| Sep 22 | BUY No
@ 96¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? |
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | $1.9K |
| Sep 11 | SELL No
@ 99¢
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? |
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? | $4.5K |
| Sep 10 | SELL No
@ 99.5¢
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? |
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | $3.9K |
| Sep 10 | SELL No
@ 96¢
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? |
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? | $2.3K |
| Aug 26 | SELL No
@ 99¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | $1.1K |
| Aug 26 | BUY No
@ 99¢
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? |
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | $1.5K |
| Aug 22 | SELL Yes
@ 56¢
Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Fed rate hike in 2026? | $1.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.